by Dan Froomkin
The Obama administration has once again increased its estimate of the flow of oil from BP’s blown-out well.
![[Call for action: Protesters let their feelings be known during a rally against BP. Government estimates of the oil flow from the gushing well have been adjusted wildly over the last weeks, leaving many to doubt that anyone has a solid handle on the scope of the total damage caused by the BP disaster. (AP) ]](http://www.commondreams.org/files/article_images/save_the_gulf.jpg "save_the_gulf.jpg")
Call for action: Protesters let their feelings be known during a rally against BP. Government estimates of the oil flow from the gushing well have been adjusted wildly over the last weeks, leaving many to doubt that anyone has a solid handle on the scope of the total damage caused by the BP disaster. (AP)Three different groups of scientists making educated guesses have come up with upper and lower ranges that go as low as 12,600 barrels a day and as high as 50,000 barrels a day. Marcia McNutt, the federal official charged with determining the flow rate, cited the range of about 20,000 to 40,000 barrels a day as the official estimate.
That would be 840,000 to 1.7 million gallons a day.
All those numbers come with the caveat that they estimate the flow from the well before a kinked riser pipe was lopped off on June 3, a move that inevitably increased the flow, although to what extent remains unclear.
Interior Secretary Ken Salazar told lawmakers on Wednesday that the riser cut increased flow four to five percent — though given the extraordinary range of guesses involved, it’s hard to fathom how he could be so sure.
The new numbers could still be low. One member of the flow group told reporters earlier this week that the flow could well be 100,000 barrels a day. But the actual flow rates are certainly much higher than the 5,000 barrel a day figure that the government stuck to long after the first video from the well head made it clear the real number was magnitudes higher.
“This is obviously a challenging scientific issue, since the leak is located a mile beneath the ocean,” McNutt, the head of the U.S. Geologic Service, told reporters in a conference call.
One of the teams of scientists — led by Richard Camilli of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution — is new to the government’s estimating group. McNutt said that team is using acoustic technology to measure the flow rate.
Yet another team, this one led by Energy Secretary and Nobel Laureate Steven Chu, is analyzing differential pressure readings they demanded BP provide from both inside and outside the new containment cap, but McNutt said their measurements are not yet complete.
These estimates still carry with them a great deal of uncertainty. One group estimated a range from 12,600 to 21,500 barrels a day; another estimated a range from 25,000 to 50,000 barrels a day. In other words, both of them can’t be right.
At 40,000 barrels (1.7 million gallons) a day, over 52 days, that would mean the blown-out well has belched over 2 million barrels (88 million gallons) of oil into the Gulf of Mexico — and somewhere around that much gas as well. The 1989 Exxon Valdez spill was estimated at about 250,000 barrels, which would make this spill at least 8 times as big, and counting.
© 2010 Huffington Post
I heard on CNN today that Brits are getting angry with the bashing of BP. As it was explained that a lot of Brits live on the income they have invested in their retirment funds. I knew it is true, because just on my blog I had someone who felt that we yanks were being unfair to BP. I do understand your feelings.
Can you Brits understand our feelings as Americans? Let’s say the spill happen off the White Cliffs of Dover. How would Brits feel if oil was washing up on the White Cliffs of Dover? As much as you love Dover, Americans who live in Southern LA love their land. I personally know a family who has lived in that area for generations and enjoyed hearing the stories. They love their home as much as you love England. Do you think you might get angry if you experienced the pain of watching a place you love die?
From the very beginning BP has not been totally truthful with our government(federal, state, and local) about what is going on with the volcano of oil and how to stop it. The numbers that BP gives for the amount of oil are very low, yet, men who know about these things say that the flow is much more than what BP says.
Another thing that is making Americans angry is they are trying to keep the media out so that we can get the full story of what we are facing and how to best fight the defenses that we need to stop the oil from destroying more than it already has. Do you see the pictures of the birds dying a terrible death? I love animals and I weep when I see animals suffering. Why is BP stoping locals from helping rescue the animals so they can be saved? It is CRUEL what BP is doing to the people along the gulf coast. It is a CRIME what they are doing.
BP needs to be honest!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Maybe the British government has some ideas that they could give to BP so that they can stop the vocano of oil from destroying the oceans and the marine life. BP NEEDS TO DO EVERYTHING IT CAN TO STOP THAT VOLCANO OF OIL. Get the tools needed and find the best people to come up with plans that actually work than spending your money on cover up. Americans are tired of BP only trying to cover up the truth and stand in the way of Americans to clean up the oil so that more and more of the wetlands and the gulf of Mexico dies. Hayward needs to admit that he is over his head and search out the best people. There must be someone in the world who can think of a way to stop the oil?
I think that BP wants to clean it up. It is in their best interest to clean it up and to do right to the people along the gulf coast who now suffer.